Sunday, May 21, 2006

the tangled Webb we weave - Part 1, Who's better for Allen?

This post is part I of a response to TC's complaint that republicans attacking Webb for what he said at his debate were distracting us from being seriously afraid of losing:

We ALL know George Allen would destroy Miller, and Republicans who want Allen to win are bashing Webb to make Miller look better..

but bashing Webb for his out of context “anti-Christ” comment is ridiculous.
I believe on June 13th that Democrats will nominate James Webb, because they know he can beat Senator Allen, and want to win that bad.

... I believe Webb would win Fairfax, Loudoun, and possibly PWC.

I believe Webb would also win VA Beach with Kellam, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Newport News.

If Mark Warner takes some time off campaigning, and goes with Webb everywhere…we have problems.

Our party is too weak right now to take anything for granted.

First, let me say that I'm not particular about who I "bash", or more correctly, what issues I comment on. It's just that the places I visit are mostly filled with Miller-bashing, so it's more interesting to discuss Webb than join them attacking Miller.

Second, I have no crystal ball, so I can't say which candidate would be more of a challenge come November. November is a long way away. I'll say this -- if Miller can win the Primary, all this Miller-Bashing will be forgotten, just like Webb's political history and non-democrat views are ignored for the sake of victory.

Given that both candidates will have full support of democrats, Miller is probably the bigger risk, because he has MONEY. Also, he has been involved in politics longer, has better contacts.

Webb is a "better" candidate only to the degree that you think Republicans are upset with Allen -- and I see no evidence of that, either from the moderates, or more importantly, from the conservatives that have abandoned the President.

And if the bloggers are to be believed, Miller is more "centrist" than Webb, and would therefore appeal to the independents better.

I am certain that Allen can beat either of these two -- but even so, he could lose to either of them. I suppose my CURRENT opinion, more of a feeling, is that republicans would be best served if Webb survives a close primary, but broke and bloodied by all the things the left for now is dismissing as meaningless.

To the degree the press can be neutral, they WILL bring up all the negatives once the primary is over and they have a candidate to write about. Both Miller and Webb are more susceptible to this than Allen, who already went through a press inquiry while winning the Governorship and the Senate seat. Being the incumbent will add some extra scrutiny, but a lot of that has already happened as well.

that THat went long, so I'll continue with "part two".

1 comment:

Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

Allen would be better served having Harris Miller as his opponent in November because Miller will be self-funding to some degree, thus triggering the millionaire's amendment under federal election law, allowing Allen to raise up to six-times the regular individual contribution limit of $2,100 per election -- that means Allen could potentially have that individual limit raised to $12,600 per person. That would also help him feather his campaign account for '08.